WNBA playoff image, standings, projections: Storm and Mystics clinch playoff berths

With just over two weeks remaining in the 2022 WNBA regular season, the playoff picture is starting to heat up. Five teams have clinched their playoff tickets – the Chicago Sky, Las Vegas Aces, Connecticut Sun, Seattle Storm and Washington Mystics – while Indiana Fever is the only team to be eliminated.

On closer inspection, there were no locked seeds and some exciting races remain. The top three teams are all in the hunt for the No. 1 seed; the storm and the mystics fight for fourth place; and six teams from 6th to 11th are in a real fight for the last three places.

As a reminder, the league has once again modified its playoff system. While the top eight teams will still make the playoffs, there’s no more bye. Instead, each team will start play in the first round with a standard bracket format which includes the #1 seed vs. the #8 seed, the #2 seed vs. the #1 seed No. 7, the No. 3 seed against the No. 6 seed, and the No. 4 seed against the No. 5 seed. The bracket will not be reseeded after the first round.

The first-round matches will be best-of-three series, with the higher seed playing Games 1 and 2 at home, and the lower seed hosting Game 3. The semi-finals and finals will all be two of the best-of-five series with a 2-2-1 format, meaning the top seeds will host Games 1, 2 and 5, while the team with the bottom seed will host Games 3 and 4 .

Current ranking

1. Chicago Sky (22-7) – Place in the playoffs won

2. Las Vegas ace (21-8) – Place in the playoffs won

3. Connecticut Sun (20-9) – Place in the playoffs won

4. Seattle Storm (19-11) – Place in the playoffs won

5. Washington mystics (18-12) – Place in the playoffs won

6. Dallas Wings (13-16)

7. Phoenix Mercury (13-16)

8. Los Angeles Sparks (12-16)

9. Atlanta Dream (12-18)

10. Liberty of New York (10-17)

11. Minnesota Lynx (11-19)

12. Indiana Fever (5-26) — Eliminated

As the action continues, here’s a preview of the playoff image:

Race for the No. 1 seed

1. Chicago Sky (22-7) – Playoff spot clinched

Games remaining: 7 (incl. to Sun, against Sun and to Aces)
Tiebreaker: vs. As: 1-1 in the season series with one game remaining; vs. Sun: 2-0 in the season series with two games remaining
Current match of the first round: against the No. 8 Los Angeles Sparks

2. Las Vegas Aces (21-8) – Playoff spot clinched

Games remaining: 7 (incl. against Sun)
Tiebreaker: against Sky: 1-1 in the season series with one game to play; vs. Sun: Won the season series 2-1
Current match of the first round: against No. 7 Phoenix Mercury

3. Connecticut Sun (20-9) – Playoff berth clinched

Games remaining: 7 (incl. vs. Sky and at Sky)
Tiebreaker: against Sky: 0-2 in the season series with two games remaining; vs. Aces: Lost season streak 1-2
Current match of the first round: against the No. 6 Dallas Wings

The Sky are currently alone in first place but have the Aces and the Sun hot on their heels. And with one game to play against the Sky and two against the Sun, the No. 1 seed and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs is still up for grabs.

With their current lead and the chance to grab the tiebreakers against the Aces and the Sun, the Sky must be considered the favorites to claim the top spot. However, it should be noted that the Aces are 5-1 since the All-Star break and have just beaten them in the Commissioners Cup final, while the Sun are 6-1 since the break.

Two teams battle for No. 4

4. Seattle Storm (18-11)

Games remaining: 6 (including at Mystics)
Tiebreaker: vs. Mystics: Won the Season Series 2-0
Current match of the first round: vs Washington Mystics #5

5. Washington mystics (18-11)

Games remaining: 6 (including against Storm)
Tiebreaker: vs. Storm: lost season streak 0-2
Current match of the first round: against Seattle Storm #4

One of the tightest races right now is in the middle of the standings where the Storm and the Mystics battle it out for fourth place and home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. On Saturday, the Storm came out on top by beating the Mystics in the first game of their back-to-back weekend. As a result, Seattle won the tiebreaker between the two teams and advanced one game in the standings.

However, fourth place is still up for grabs, especially if Washington can pull off a win on Sunday in the teams’ final meeting. Although the Mystics could not win the tiebreaker, they would draw teams level in the standings with five games to go each.

Spots 6-8 up for grabs

6. Dallas Wings (13-16)

Games remaining: 7 (incl. against Liberty x2, at Mercury, at Sparks)
Tiebreaker: vs. Mercury: 2-1 in the season series with one game to play; vs. Sparks: 1-2 in the season series with one game remaining; vs. Dream: lost season streak 1-2; vs. Liberty: 1-0 in the season series with two games remaining; vs. Lynx: Won the season series 2-1
Current match of the first round: vs. No. 3 Connecticut Sun

The Wings lost seven of their last 10 games heading into Saturday, but pulled off a massive win over the Dream to get back on track. Additionally, they climbed all the way up to sixth place in the crowded leaderboard. They still have a lot of work to do, but beating the Dream was a huge step toward a second straight playoff appearance.

7. Phoenix Mercury (13-16)

Games remaining: 7 (incl. at Liberty, vs. Liberty and vs. Wings)
Tiebreaker: vs. Sparks: season streak tied 2-2, currently owns a tiebreaker via best record against teams over .500; vs. Wings: 1-2 in the season series with one game to play; vs. Dream: lost season streak 1-2; vs. Liberty: 1-0 in the season series with two games remaining; vs. Lynx: lost season streak 0-3
Current match of the first round: against the No. 2 Las Vegas aces

With Skylar Diggins-Smith in the lead, the Mercurys picked up back-to-back wins to move up to seventh. It’s a solid position at the moment, but they’re about to embark on a tough three-game East Coast road trip that includes two clashes with the scorching sun.

8. Los Angeles Sparks (12-16)

Games remaining: 8 (incl. against Lynx, at Liberty x2, at Dream, against Wings)
Tiebreaker: vs. Sparks: season streak tied 2-2, currently losing tiebreaker via worst record against teams above .500; vs. Wings: 2-1 in the season series with one game to play; vs. Dream: 1-1 in the season series with one game remaining; vs. Liberty: 1-0 in the season series with two games remaining; vs. Lynx: 1-1 in the season series with one game to play
Current match of the first round: against the No. 1 Chicago Sky

The Sparks are trending down again and their next four games will face other playoff prospects, including three on the road. That streak is going to be vital for the Sparks, who are only one game ahead of the ninth-placed Dream, whom they will face on August 5.

9. Atlanta Dream (12-18)

Games remaining: 6 (incl. vs. Sparks, at Lynx, vs. Liberty, at Liberty)
Tiebreaker: vs. Mercury: Won season series 2-1; Sparks: 1-1 in the season series with one game to play; vs. Wings: Won the season series 2-1; vs. Liberty: 1-1 in the season series with two games remaining; vs. Lynx: 1-1 in the season series with one game to play
Current match of the first round: N / A

There’s never a good time for a four-game losing streak, but the last month of the season is particularly painful. That current slide took the Dream out of the playoff picture, and after a crushing loss Saturday to the Wings, they are now a full game down on eighth. The good news is that they’ve won or are tied in every tiebreaker, which could give them the upper hand for a playoff berth at the end of the season.

10. Minnesota Lynx (11-19)

Games remaining: 6 (including at Sparks, vs. Dream)
Tiebreaker: vs. Mercury: Won season series 3-0; vs. Sparks: 1-1 in the season series with one game remaining; vs. Wings: lost season series 1-2; vs. Dream: 1-1 in the season series with one game remaining; vs. Liberty: Won the season series 2-1
Current match of the first round: N / A

Despite a midseason push to make their record more respectable, the Lynx are unlikely to make the playoffs. They’ve played the most games and have the worst record in this group, but since they’re less than two games from eighth place and won a few tiebreakers, we’ll include them for now. .

11. Liberty of New York (10-18)

Games remaining: 8 (incl. vs. Mercury, vs. Sparks x2, at Mercury, at Wings x2, at Dream, vs. Dream)
Tiebreaker: vs. Mercury: 0-1 in the season series with two games remaining; vs. Sparks: 0-1 in the season series with two games remaining; vs. Wings: 0-1 in the season series with two games remaining; vs. Dream: 1-1 in the season series with two games remaining; vs. Lynx: lost season streak 1-2
Current match of the first round: N / A

The Liberty couldn’t take advantage of Candace Parker’s absence on Friday night, losing a tight game against Sky. As a result, they are now 2-8 in their last 10 games and have dropped to 11th place. Their playoff hopes are fading, but the remaining eight games are against other playoff contenders, so if they get hot, they could still fight their way through.

The bottom of the playoff picture is kind of a mess, with the six teams between sixth and 11th in the standings separated by just 2.5 games. Each team has at least two games to play against the other teams in that group, and only a handful of tiebreakers have been settled. All of this means that this current ranking won’t stay the same for long.

Eliminated

12. Indiana Fever (5-26)

The fever was the first team eliminated from the playoffs and will be back in the lottery for the sixth straight season. It’s the worst stretch in franchise history, and they hope to have some luck with the ping pong balls later this year.