Bills vs Titans Odds & Picks
Stucky: I love this Bills team – they were my only Super Bowl future for a reason. However, after a resounding victory on national television over the almighty Chiefs, Bills’ stock could be at their peak. And as a bettor, I bet on numbers, not teams.
There is too much value on the Titans domestic dog to pass here.
And I love supporting this Titans team as a dog. For what it’s worth, Mike Vrabel has a sparkling 13-5 ATS (ATS) record – a 72.2% success rate – as an underdog by three points or more, averaging over eight points per game.
The Titans have the offensive to follow the Bills’ powerful attack. And King Derrick Henry is expected to have a monster ground game against a Bills defense that remains vulnerable to running, in part by design.
This Tennessee passing offense is expected to continue to improve on a weekly basis with all of its major games back in the mix. With both superstar receivers now in full health, look for the Titans to attack Bills cornerback Levi Wallace. And if necessary, Ryan Tannehill can sneak through the backdoor if necessary.
Josh Allen also looked a bit in the precision department (when the receivers weren’t wide open against the Kansas City sieve defense). A few stray throws in key situations and / or in the red zone could tip this result.
When adjusting to the opponent, this Buffalo attack only played at a slightly above average level, so it still works. And while I love that defense, it has faced three reserve quarterbacks in its first five games, so the numbers are artificially high.
Lock Titans at +6 if you can – even down to -115 – but I still like them up to +5 (find the best realtime row here). I was as high on the Bills as anyone coming into the season and have always ranked them as the best team in the AFC, but inflation hit the market which means it’s time to sell .
Michel Arinze: The Bills will seek revenge for last season’s humiliating 42-16 loss to the Titans. It was a one-time game that was postponed to a Tuesday following a COVID-19 outbreak in Tennessee locker rooms. It didn’t help that Buffalo was in a situation of disappointment and anticipation with an imminent home game against defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City the following week.
The Bills turned the ball unusually three times – twice in their half – with all three turnovers resulting in touchdowns that took less than two minutes. Titans cornerback Malcolm Butler was responsible for two of those turnovers, with two interceptions. Butler is no longer with the Titans after retiring before the season due to a personal matter.
This time around, the Bills come off an impressive 38-20 road victory over the Chiefs. Buffalo has the highest point differential (+108) in the league and is ranked first in Football Outsiders Global DVOA Indicator.
It’s fair to expect the Titans to establish the race with Derrick Henry in the first half. However, the Bills have done a good job of containing him as he has yet to run for more than 78 yards in their three games. And if Buffalo’s offense plays at the same level we’ve seen over the past four weeks, that will force Tennessee to be more off balance and drop out of the race. So the Titans will likely continue the game, especially in the second half.
This could play into the game of a Bills defense ranked first in DVOA against the pass.
The Bills are 9-1 ATS in the second half of their last 10 games, for our Action Labs dataa. They are also on a 4-0 ATS run at this location. So, I recommend a half-unit set on the Bills in the second half at -2.5 – you can find this number available on Unibet at the time of writing. I would play it until -3.
Derrick Henry over 14.5 recreational yards
Mike Randle: This is a choice based on a logic similar to the Jonathan Taylor reception accessory that we cashed last Monday evening. Tennessee comes into limited play on offense with main wide receiver AJ Brown listed as dubious with an illness. Brown also struggled with a lingering hamstring injury, further clouding the effectiveness of Tennessee’s passing game.
The Titans need to get creative on offense to compete with the Bills.
The Tennessee defense ranks 27th in DVOA and is unlikely to limit Buffalo’s explosive offense, so the Titans have to rely on their limited offensive playmakers to generate footage, which means a hefty dose. from Henry. He actually ranks 16th among all running backs in receiving yards at the start of Week 6, and his total of 125 yards is already higher than his total of 114 yards at the end of the 2020 season. beat that prop in four of the last five games, with last week’s positive play scenario in winning over Jacksonville the only outlier.
The Titans will be looking to deploy Henry in all facets of the offense, and I expect his use of the newly effective passing play to be highlighted. I caught this prop at 13.5 meters and it has now climbed to 14.5 meters, but I’m still comfortable taking it here and would do it up to 15.5 meters.
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